May 23, 2013
NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season
its 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued
today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an
active or extremely active season this year.
For the six-month
hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane season
outlook says there is a 70 percent likelihood of 13 to 20 named storms
(winds of 39 mph or higher), of which seven to 11 could become
hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including three to six major
hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).
These ranges are well above the seasonal average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
the devastation of Sandy fresh in our minds, and another active season
predicted, everyone at NOAA is committed to providing life-saving
forecasts in the face of these storms and ensuring that Americans are
prepared and ready ahead of time.” said Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA
acting administrator. “As we saw first-hand with Sandy, it’s important
to remember that tropical storm and hurricane impacts are not limited
to the coastline. Strong winds, torrential rain, flooding, and
tornadoes often threaten inland areas far from where the storm first
Three climate factors that strongly control
Atlantic hurricane activity are expected to come together to produce an
active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season. These are:
continuation of the atmospheric climate pattern, which includes a
strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of
high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995.
Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.
El Niņo is not expected to develop and suppress hurricane formation.
year, oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic basin are
expected to produce more and stronger hurricanes,” said Dr. Gerry Bell,
lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction
Center. “These conditions include weaker wind shear, warmer Atlantic
waters, and conducive winds patterns coming from Africa."
seasonal hurricane outlook is not a hurricane landfall forecast. It
does not predict how many storms will hit land or where a storm will
strike. Forecasts for individual storms and their impacts will be
provided throughout the season by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center.
for this hurricane season are improvements to forecast models, data
gathering, and the National Hurricane Center communication procedure
for post-tropical cyclones. In July, NOAA plans to bring online a new
supercomputer that will run an upgraded Hurricane Weather Research and
Forecasting (HWRF) model that provides significantly enhanced depiction
of storm structure and improved storm intensity forecast guidance.
this year, Doppler radar data will be transmitted in real time from
NOAA’s Hurricane Operations Center Hurricane Hunter aircraft. This will
help forecasters better analyze rapidly evolving storm conditions, and
these data could further improve the HWRF model forecasts by 10 to 15
The National Weather Service has also made changes to
allow for hurricane warnings to remain in effect, or to be newly
issued, for storms like Sandy that have become post-tropical. This
flexibility allows forecasters to provide a continuous flow of forecast
and warning information for evolving or continuing threats.
start of hurricane season is a reminder that our families, businesses
and communities need to be ready for the next big storm,” said Joe
Nimmich, FEMA associate administrator for Response and Recovery.
“Preparedness today can make a big difference down the line, so update
your family emergency plan and make sure your emergency kit is stocked.
Learn more about how you can prepare for hurricane season at www.ready.gov/hurricanes.”
week, May 26 - June 1, is National Hurricane Preparedness Week. To help
those living in hurricane-prone areas prepare, NOAA is offering
hurricane preparedness tips, along with video and audio public service
announcements in both English and Spanish, featuring NOAA hurricane
experts and the FEMA administrator at www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/.
outlook for the Eastern Pacific basin is for a below-normal hurricane
season and the Central Pacific basin is also expected to have a
NOAA will issue an updated outlook for the
Atlantic hurricane season in early August, just prior to the historical
peak of the season.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict
changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the
surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage coastal and marine
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