August 24, 2015
Danny dissipates, but Ericka may not be far behindHurricane
Danny, a powerful Category 3 storm just last Friday, was downgraded to
a tropical storm over the weekend and then to a low pressure area just
west-southwest of Guadeloupe Monday morning, defeated by wind shear and
By IRENE NOLAN
The National Hurricane Center stopped issuing advisories on Danny at 11
a.m. today, and forecasters turned their attention to a healthy looking
area of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic, now known as Invest 98L.
At 2 p.m. this afternoon, the low was 950 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and was moving westward near 20 mph.
Forecasters say the showers and thunderstorms in the area are showing
signs of organization and that conditions appear favorable for tropical
development. The Hurricane Center is giving this area a 90 percent
chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm, perhaps by
The area will follow a path similar to Danny's, but it is much larger
than Danny and therefore might be less susceptible to wind shear and
Although it's too early to tell exactly what path this storm will take,
it's possible that it will dodge some of the wind shear and dry air
that doomed Danny and that it could get closer to the United States.
At this early point in time, some models have the new storm
turning north around the Bahamas and traveling up the coast offshore
and some others take it into the Gulf of Mexico.
A tropical wave following Invest 98L is accompanied by disorganized
showers and thunderstorms, and environmental conditions aren't favoring
development of this system as it moves westward. The Hurricane Center
gives this area only a 10 percent chance to develop into a tropical
system over the next 48 hours.