Atlantic hurricane season still expected to be strongest since 2012
its updated 2016 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA calls for a
higher likelihood of a near-normal or above-normal season, and
decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent, from
the initial outlook issued in May. The season is still expected to be the most active since 2012.
now expect a 70 percent chance of 12–17 named storms, of which five to
eight are expected to become hurricanes, including two to four major
hurricanes. The initial outlook called for 10–16 named storms, four to
eight hurricanes, and one to four major hurricanes. The seasonal
averages are 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
raised the numbers because some conditions now in place are indicative
of a more active hurricane season, such as El Niņo ending, weaker
vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds over the central tropical
Atlantic, and a stronger west African monsoon,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D.,
lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
less conducive ocean temperature patterns in both the Atlantic and
eastern subtropical North Pacific, combined with stronger wind shear
and sinking motion in the atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea, are expected to prevent the season from becoming extremely active.
"Given these competing
conditions, La Niņa, if it develops, will most likely be weak and have
little impact on the hurricane season,” added Bell.
NOAA announced today that La Niņa is slightly favored to develop during the hurricane season.
date, there have been five named storms, including two hurricanes --
Alex and Earl. Four made landfall: Bonnie (in South Carolina), Colin
(in western Florida), Danielle (in eastern Mexico), and Earl (in Belize
we move into the peak of hurricane season, when hurricanes are most
frequent and often at their strongest, NOAA urges coastal residents to
make sure they have their hurricane preparedness plans in place and to
monitor the latest forecasts.
FOR MORE INFORMATION
To read a discussion of the updated hurricane season outlook issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, go to http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml.