Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a 75 percent chance that the
2018 Atlantic hurricane season will be near normal or above-normal.
predict a 35 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent
chance of a near-normal season, and a 25 percent chance of a
below-normal season for the upcoming hurricane season, which extends
from June 1 to November 30.
forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms
(winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes
(winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes
(category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.
predicted an above average 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season, which came
to fruition with 17 named storms. It was the seventh-most active season
since records began in 1851, according to NOAA.
the advances made in hardware and computing over the course of the last
year, the ability of NOAA scientists to both predict the path of storms
and warn Americans who may find themselves in harm’s way is
unprecedented,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “The
devastating hurricane season of 2017 demonstrated the necessity for
prompt and accurate hurricane forecasts.”
possibility of a weak El Nino developing, along with near-average
sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and
Caribbean Sea, are two of the factors driving this outlook. These
factors are set upon a backdrop of atmospheric and oceanic conditions
that are conducive to hurricane development and have been producing
stronger Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995.
observational and modeling enhancements for the 2018 season put us on
the path to deliver the world’s best regional and global weather
models,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., assistant secretary of commerce for
environmental observation and prediction “These upgrades are key to
improving hurricane track and intensity forecasts, allowing NOAA to
deliver the best science and service to the nation.”
NOAA will update the 2018 Atlantic seasonal outlook again in early August, just prior to the peak of the season.