State of Emergency declared in Dare, Matthew still aiming for Outer Banks

October 4, 2016 | Local News | By: Irene Nolan

Even as powerful Category 4 Hurricane Matthew was bearing down on eastern Cuba this afternoon and preparing to take aim at the Bahamas tomorrow, the Dare County Control Group met and declared a state of emergency for Dare County and all six of its towns.

The emergency declarations are effective immediately and allow local officials to implement protective measures – including issuance of mandatory evacuation orders -that may be necessary as the hurricane approaches.

Meanwhile Dare county’s emergency management director and the local National Weather Service Office in Newport/Morehead City continue to advise Outer Banks residents — and indeed all residents of eastern North Carolina — to prepare for a potentially dangerous and life-threatening impacts from Hurricane Matthew.

This evening, the National Hurricane Center said that the eye of the storm made landfall near Juaco, Cuba, at 8 p.m. with winds of 140 mph.

Matthew is moving north at 9 mph. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Wednesday, followed by a northwest turn Wednesday night. Matthew is forecast to move near or over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas Wednesday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night.

Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through at least Thursday night.

The key talking points in a local National Weather Service webinar this afternoon were that model uncertainty has been introduced once again in the potential forecast track of Matthew, which is expected to move up the eastern seaboard in some fashion later this week and over the weekend.

“Model spread has come back in the forecast,” said Richard Bandy, meteorologist-in-charge of the local Weather Service office.

Two models, he said, have slowed down the forward speed of the cyclone and shifted its path more to the east.

“However,” Bandy said, “we don’t want to put too much weight on change in a couple of models.”

The forecast track of the storm could shift back and forth several times before it arrives in the area of eastern North Carolina, Bandy added.

He said it is still forecast to pass over or close to the Outer Banks as a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which includes storm with winds of 96-110 mph. It should weaken to a Category 1 as it moves off the coast.

“The forecast will shift back and forth, so we can’t nail down the specifics,” Bandy emphasized again, warning against focusing too much on the exact forecast track of the storm or its forecast category at landfall.

However, based on the current track, this is what we might expect on Hatteras and Ocracoke:

Storm surge. In general, anyone near the oceanfront or sound should be prepared for surge of 3 to 5 feet above ground, or 4 to 7 feet above normal, with the potential for localized higher amounts. The soundside surge somewhere along the Outer Banks — it’s too early to say where yet — could rival that of Hurricane Irene, which devastated the tri-villages with flooding of up to 8 to 10 feet.

Oceanfront locations could experience significantly high surf and breaking waves, resulting in erosion and ocean overwash and significant damage to Highway 12. “Be prepared to be cut off on Hatteras Island,” Bandy said.

Winds. Hurricane force winds are possible just about anywhere within the area. Timing of the onset of winds is uncertain, but they could begin spreading across the area as early as late Friday or Friday night. It could be mid-day Sunday before tropical force winds subside across the area as the storm departs.

Power outages. Prolonged outages are possible with high winds and downed trees.

Rain. Heavy rain and flash flooding are possible, with amounts depending on the track of the storm. At this point, the NWS is forecasting 5 to 8 inches of rain. The ground is already wet, so it won’t take much for flash flooding. Rainfall could arrive well ahead of the heavy winds.

Tornadoes. Should Matthew track west of the Outer Banks, the area would be in a very favorable environment for tornadoes.

Marine threats. There is already a small craft advisory in effect for strong northeast winds and seas to 8 feet. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate later in the week as Matthew approaches. Boaters are advised to stay in port and be prepared to secure their vessels.

Rip currents. As Matthew approaches, the rip current threat will remain high all along the Outer Banks. Use caution when entering the water.

The timing of the impacts will depend on the forward speed of the hurricane, Bandy said, but tropical storm force winds could begin as early as late Friday night or early Saturday morning on the Outer Banks. Hurricane force winds could be possible during the day on Saturday.

If Matthew tracks inland and then crosses over the Outer Banks, the storm surge could hit the backside of Hatteras and Ocracoke very quickly, he said.

Meanwhile, in a news release this afternoon, Dare County said that while under the state of emergency, no re-entry passes will be issued by Dare County Emergency Management.

Drew Pearson, Dare’s emergency manager, has added a link on the county website to the re-entry process so everyone has clarity on what passes are needed should an evacuation be ordered and there is a staged re-entry (Reentry Process ). Dare County permanent residents need a valid N.C. driver’s license with a local address or a current Dare County tax receipt.

“Hurricane Matthew is a strong, dangerous storm that, on its current track, is expected to bring significant to catastrophic impacts to Dare County,” according to the news release. “It is important for residents and visitors to stay informed and take necessary steps now to protect property. Assemble or restock your supply kit with essential supplies to sustain your family and your pets for up to three days. Preparedness information is available at www.readync.org .”

The Dare County Control Group will meet again on Wednesday to review updated forecast information and determine protective measures necessary to ensure public safety. Those measures could involve a mandatory evacuation of all or parts of the county.

“Be prepared to evacuate if the order is issued,” the county said.

For up to date information, register to receive email alerts directly from Dare County Emergency Management at www.darecountyem.com and follow @DareCountyEM on Twitter.

“Once again the only thing that is certain, is the uncertainty with the forecast,” Pearson said. “No matter what happens with the forecast, Matthew is headed our way and we will have impacts.”

The next update from Emergency Management will be issued by 2:30 p.m. on Wednesday, Oct. 5.

For local weather information, go to http://www.weather.gov/mhx/ . The page has links to the tropical forecast. You can find the beach forecast, including the rip current forecast on the Island Free Press home page — at the top right. Click on the icon with the beach umbrella.

Click here to see the latest briefing from the National Weather Service in Newport/Morehead City.