Potential Tropical Cyclone #16, which may become Tropical Cyclone Nestor, may bring heavy rains, high winds, and minor coastal flooding to the Outer Banks beginning this weekend, per a Friday morning update from the National Weather Service Newport / Morehead City office.
The storm is expected to make landfall along the Gulf Coast on Saturday, and will lose its tropical characteristics shortly after landfall, with the strong remnant low expected to quickly cut across Eastern North Carolina on Saturday night and Sunday.
Minor coastal flooding is possible across coastal North Carolina along both the sounds and oceanfront. Areas of greatest impact are largely dependent on the track of the low, but locations with dune structures already weakened by Dorian and last week’s Nor’easter will be particularly vulnerable.
Seas as large as 10-12 ft. Sunday will bring very dangerous maritime and surf zone conditions. The elevated threat for rip currents will continue into the early part of next week.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches is expected for Eastern N.C, with locally higher amounts expected along and to the right of the track of the storm. High rainfall rates will make localized flash flooding possible, especially for more urban areas.
Gusty winds are also possible across the area, with the strongest winds of 30-40 mph or more mainly confined to coastal areas. A few tornadoes are also possible, which could lead to extensive but very localized damage.
The impacts felt locally from this storm are not dependent on where or not it is considered tropical, and uncertainty remains with respect to the specifics of the impacts, which are track dependent. For more information on the local forecast, visit www.weather.gov/mhx for weather information, or the National Weather Service office in Newport / Morehead City’s Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/NWSMoreheadCity/.