Researchers at North Carolina State University are predicting another active Atlantic hurricane season in 2025, calling for 12 to 15 named tropical cyclones this year.
The number of named storms predicted is in line with recent averages, according to Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State.
The long-term (1951 to 2023) average of named storms is 11, and the more recent average (1994 to 2024) is 15 named storms, according to a press release.
Of the predicted 12 to 15 named storms, six to eight may grow strong enough to become hurricanes (the historical average is six), with the possibility of two to three storms becoming major hurricanes.
Earlier this month, Colorado State University researchers predicted an above-average season with 17 named storms, 9 to become hurricanes and 4 to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson Category 3, 4 or 5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
The Gulf’s forecast from NC State is also in line with recent averages, as Xie’s data indicates the likelihood of one to three named storms forming in the region, with one to two of them becoming hurricanes, and the potential for one to become a major hurricane.
Historic averages for the Gulf are three named storms and two hurricanes.
Xie’s methodology evaluates more than 100 years of historical data on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables, including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form in each ocean basin.
The forecast was made through a collaboration between NC State’s departments of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and Computer Science.
NC State adjunct assistant professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences Xia Sun is the lead scientist of this year’s forecast team.
