Well, it’s time to look back on 2023 and see which areas saw price gains and which areas had a bit of a retreat in home prices.
Please keep in mind that last year’s stats were from a very low-volume year, and some areas had very few homes that sold compared to 2020-2022. I’m including 2019 in some statistics so you can see the last “normal” year on the Outer Banks before things got a little… crazy.
Total homes sold on the OBX:
2019 – 2,142
2020 – 3,091
2021 – 3,386
2022 – 2,470
2023 – 1,791
As you can see, we got a little closer to “normal” in 2022 due to extremely low inventory, but then things really slowed down as rates spiked in 2022/2023. Total sales volume was actually lower last year than it was in our last “normal” year.
Median Residential Sales Price % change by area (2023 to 2022 comparison):
Corolla – down 4.25%
Duck – down 10.9%
Southern Shores – down 5.5%
Kitty Hawk – up 0.9%
Kill Devil Hills – up 10.1%
Nags Head – down 10.7%
Tri-Villages (Rodanthe/Waves/Salvo) – up 2.2%
Avon – down 4.7%
Buxton – down 12.8%
Frisco – up 17%
Hatteras Village – down 2.6%
Manteo (incl Pirates Cove ) – up 8%
Interesting stats, right? The three big winners from last year (Frisco, KDH, Manteo) all had different reasons for their success.
Frisco, to me, (and apparently many others), has the best beach on the entire Outer Banks. Kill Devil Hills is where a large elementary/middle/high school complex is located, and has a big appeal to year-round residents. Manteo has been somewhat of a forgotten area as the beach areas skyrocketed in price from 2020-2022, but people saw value there due to the fishing/soundfront lifestyle and the growing music and craft brewery sector downtown.
The three largest losses in median sales price (Buxton, Duck, Nags Head) had reasons for their price changes as well.
In Buxton, there were only 15 homes sold in all of 2023 and a few of those were listed on the lower end of the price range. In Duck, the number of co-ownership sales, (sort of like a timeshare), doubled from 2022-2023, impacting price data. If I use only single-family home sales in Duck, home prices actually went up 6%. And in Nags Head, there were 22 sales of $2m+ properties in 2022. In 2023, there were only 7 sales for $2m+ properties. The lack of sales volume on these higher-end homes affected the median sales price.
So this is a little different than 2020-2022, when almost everything was green and 5%+ every single year. Now price changes are a little more nuanced instead of fishing with dynamite, where anything you bought was likely to go up in value. Which areas do I like the most as far as home price appreciation potential in 2024?
Downtown Manteo (near the festival park)
Frisco and Hatteras (oceanfront or soundfront)
Inventory is still well below 2020 levels. Mortgage rates may come down a bit and heat up the housing market, or they may stay in the 6-7% range most of the year and we see a market very similar to 2023.
No matter which way the rates go, I hope everyone has a great year ahead in 2024!
About the Author: Stephen Smith is an Outer Banks realtor with Real Broker, LLC. He was nationally recognized as an award-winning agent in 2021 and 2022 at his previous firm. He has lived on the Outer Banks for nearly 20 years, and met his lovely wife on Hatteras Island. They currently reside in Nags Head with their daughter, but Hatteras Island is still home in many ways. For questions on the Hatteras or greater OBX real estate market, you can contact Stephen directly at stephensmithobx@gmail.com or 252-216-9230. His website is https://www.stephensmithobx.com or you can receive his weekly newsletter by signing up at https://mailchi.mp/43cd4a4bf1a6/obxnewsletter.
