Snow chances dwindle, but Arctic temps, high winds, minor flooding possible

By JOY CRIST

In a 4 p.m. update on the impending weekend winter storm, the local National Weather Service office in Newport/Morehead City forecast a reduced chance of snow accumulation for the southern Outer Banks.

“The models that came in this afternoon did trend warmer in general across our area, resulting in forecast changes and lowering accumulation [along the coast],” said Meteorologist-in-Charge Richard Bandy. Current snow accumulation is forecasted to be less than 1 inch for southern Hatteras Island and Ocracoke, and 1-2 inches in northern Hatteras Island / Rodanthe area. 

Additional changes in the forecast, however, included minor to moderate coastal flooding in areas adjacent to the Pamlico Sound, particularly in the southern Outer Banks. 

“There are concerns with [the] potential for minor or low end moderate flooding from around Buxton all the way to Ocracoke,” said Bandy.  “… A coastal flood watch has not been issued yet. We’re waiting on more data information.”

As of the 4 p.m. briefing, the NWS forecast water levels to be 2 to 3 feet above normal in southern Hatteras areas adjacent to the Pamlico Sound, as well as high surf conditions and minor erosion on the oceanside from Cape Hatteras north.

“The majority of this storm is going to be rain along the coast and along most of the Outer Banks, south of Oregon Inlet,” said Bandy. “It could still end with snow, sleet, and freezing rain, as cold air is coming in.” Freezing rain accumulation could be one-tenth of an inch on northern Hatteras Island, according to the 4 p.m. data maps.

Wind gusts are also expected to reach 40-45 mph along the coastline over the weekend, with temperatures in the teens and 20s into Monday morning, and wind chill temperatures in the single digits. The Arctic temperatures could create issues with melting and refreezing on the local roadways, causing dangerous driving conditions into Monday.

“The wintery precipitation is expected to end Saturday evening, but roadways will likely remain hazardous,” said Bandy.

The impending storm is due to a weak low pressure that will move up the coast tonight, and a stronger area of low pressure that will move offshore Friday night through Saturday night. Strong cold high pressure will then build south into the region through early next week, and another cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday.

Today’s 4 p.m. update on the storm came just a few hours after a 10 a.m. Winter Storm Watch was issued by the National Weather Service in Newport / Morehead City for Friday evening through late Saturday night.

“As forecast confidence builds over the next 12-24 hours we could see a WINTER STORM WARNING issued,” Dare County emergency management director Drew Pearson said in an email this evening. “A warning is issued when a significant combination of hazardous winter weather is occurring or imminent. In addition to winter weather potential, a gale warning is in effect at this time.  With the high winds, a Coastal Flood Advisory may be issued.”

“…Those with travel plans, as well as those coordinating activities that will have people traveling to/from events, should start considering the conditions that will lead them to cancel their travel or the activity to ensure safety.”

NCDOT also announced in an afternoon 5 press release that crews from the N.C. Department of Transportation are already preparing the state’s roads, bridges and overpasses in anticipation of the storm.

In Division 1, which includes 14 counties in the northeastern portion of the state including Dare and Hyde counties, crews are applying brine to the division’s major highways and secondary roads, which includes U.S. 64, U.S. 158 and U.S. 17. Staff will also monitor conditions on several high-rise bridges, as well as spots along Highway 12 known to be prone to ocean over-wash.

“Our preparation activities are currently underway now and will continue into the morning,” Division One engineer Jerry Jennings said in the press release. “Our crews are using all of the tools and materials at our disposal to prepare for any significant weather that may come.”

NCDOT crews are also readying and testing equipment such as snow plows and spreaders, checking fuel supplies and are alerting response personnel to be on standby. Additional information about severe weather and safety tips for motorists is available on the NCDOT’s website.

The Dare County website also has tips and information regarding winter weather available, as well as updates on warnings or advisories.

For more detailed forecast information, go to www.weather.gov/mhx/