UPDATE: Get ready for high winds, heavy rain, storm surge on Hatteras and Ocracoke

October 7, 2016 | Local News | By: Irene Nolan

Matthew’s forecast track shifted slightly again in the 5 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center, bringing the storm closer to the south coast of North Carolina Saturday night before it moves east out into the Atlantic and eventually re-curves back down to the south.

There are no changes to the tropical storm warning for the entire North Carolina coast from Surf City to Duck and the hurricane watch from Surf City to Cape Lookout that the Hurricane Center issued this morning.

However, at this evening’s webinar, Richard Bandy, meteorologist in charge of the local National Weather Service office in Newport/Morehead City, said that there are some changes to the forecast for the Outer Banks, especially Hatteras and Ocracoke.

Wind speed forecasts have increased. Southern Hatteras and Ocracoke should prepare for sustained winds of 50 to 55 mph with gusts to 70. Northern Hatteras Island can expect slightly lower sustained winds of 45 to 50 mph with gusts to 60. The highest winds will begin Saturday night and last into Sunday.

On southern Hatteras and Ocracoke — and some other coastal areas along the southern Pamlico Sound — the heavy rainfall will mix in with a surge from the Pamlico Sound that is now forecast to be 2 to 4 feet above ground level and 3 to 6 feet above normal.

Bandy adds that in Hermine, average ground level surge was measured by the National Weather Service at 2 to 3 feet above ground with 4 feet in the low spots.

“In this case,” he said, “I’d actually prepare for a foot higher than Hermine, with up to 4 feet above ground at average ground elevations and up to 5 feet in low spots.”

The storm surge is expected to be a mostly Sunday event. The surge will not rush in as it did with Hermine on Sept. 3, but the sound will rise and recede more gradually.

Storm surge on the oceanside of Hatteras will be slightly more than forecast. Instead of minor erosion and isolated wave run-up and overwash, we can expect moderate beach erosion and scattered areas of wave run-up and overwash, along with possible issues on Highway 12. The erosion and overwash could last into the high tides on Monday.

Wind direction will change. The wind will begin Saturday and Saturday night as east-southeast, shift to east-northeast, and perhaps some north wind at the end of the event.

The rainfall forecast has also increased from 8 to 15 inches with local amounts to 18, mostly on the mainland of North Carolina where major river flooding is possible. Bandy said the mainland could see the worst flooding since Hurricane Floyd in 1999.

The flooding on the mainland will contribute to water level rises in the Pamlico Sound, which is already at levels of 1 to 3 feet above normal from all the rainfall in the past few weeks.

Ocracoke and Hatteras are forecast to receive less rainfall – about 7 inches on northern Hatteras, 8 inches on southern Hatteras and perhaps up to 9 on Ocracoke.

The Weather Service has issued a flash flood watch from 8 a.m. on Saturday until 2 p.m. on Sunday and calls the potential rainfall “a dangerous and life-threatening flooding event.”

Heavy rain from the storm will start about mid-day on Saturday and continue into Sunday afternoon.

Marine conditions will deteriorate rapidly with seas forecast to be 10 to 23 feet over the weekend.
The local Weather Service Office also warns that the threat of rip currents and heavy shorebreak along the Outer Banks is high today and the threat will remain elevated through the weekend and into next week.

The Weather Service advises that residents and visitors should avoid travel, if at all possible this weekend. The NWS also advises residents and visitors to move property to a higher location — move your vehicles if you live in a flood-prone area. Pick up your yard, under the house, and secure loose objects on the deck.

All preparedness actions should be completed very soon.

Hurricane Matthew whipped the east coast of Florida overnight and today.

At 5 p.m., the Hurricane Center said the center of the storm was 40 miles east of Jacksonville Beach and was heading north at 12 mph. This motion is expected
to continue tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast and then to the northeast is expected on Saturday.

On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will continue to move near or over the
coast of northeast Florida and Georgia through tonight, and near or over the coast of South Carolina on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph with higher gusts. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane until it begins to move away from the southeastern United States on Sunday.

A state of emergency, declared by Gov. Pat McCrory, is still in effect in coastal North Carolina. Also, both Dare and Hyde counties have declared states of emergency.

Ocracoke evacuated visitors Wednesday and cancelled Thursday’s mandatory evacuation for residents.

Dare officials say the state of emergency declaration for the county and its six towns will remain in place but have issued no evacuation orders.

However, in a news release this afternoon, county officials advised that road closures and travel restrictions are possible over the weekend.

“The National Weather Service is highly discouraging travel across northeastern North Carolina this weekend,” the county said in a news release. “As conditions deteriorate, road closures and travel restrictions are anticipated in Dare County, particularly for portions of Highway 12 on Hatteras Island.”

The news release says that visitors to Dare County are encouraged to depart today and travel to the area should be postponed until conditions improve.

Dare County emergency management director Drew Pearson said in an email this afternoon that Dare County will “partially activate” its emergency control group at 9 a.m. on Saturday ” to ensure the appropriate public safety agencies are in place to address issues that arise as we realize storm impacts.”

Click here to see the latest briefing from the National Weather Service in Newport/Morehead City.

To receive email updates directly from Dare County Emergency Management, register online at www.darecountyem.com and follow @DareCountyEM on Twitter.

Residents and visitors may contact Dare County Emergency Management by calling 252.475.5655 or visiting www.darenc.com for updated information.

For information regarding road conditions and closures, visit tims.ncdot.gov/tims. For the most up to date information regarding the status of NC12, visit www.facebook.com/NCDOTNC12

For local weather information, go to http://www.weather.gov/mhx/. The page has links to the tropical forecast. You can find the beach forecast, including the rip current forecast on the Island Free Press home page — at the top right. Click on the icon with the beach umbrella.