Danny dissipates, but Ericka may not be far behind

Hurricane Danny, a powerful Category 3 storm just last Friday, was downgraded to a tropical storm over the weekend and then to a low pressure area just west-southwest of Guadeloupe Monday morning, defeated by wind shear and dry air.

The National Hurricane Center stopped issuing advisories on Danny at 11 a.m. today, and forecasters turned their attention to a healthy looking area of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic, now known as Invest 98L.

At 2 p.m. this afternoon, the low was 950 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and was moving westward near 20 mph.

Forecasters say the showers and thunderstorms in the area are showing signs of organization and that conditions appear favorable for tropical development. The Hurricane Center is giving this area a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm, perhaps by tomorrow.

The area will follow a path similar to Danny’s, but it is much larger than Danny and therefore might be less susceptible to wind shear and drier air.

Although it’s too early to tell exactly what path this storm will take, it’s possible that it will dodge some of the wind shear and dry air that doomed Danny and that it could get closer to the United States.

At this early point in time, some models have the new storm turning north around the Bahamas and traveling up the coast offshore and some others take it into the Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical wave following Invest 98L is accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and environmental conditions aren’t favoring development of this system as it moves westward. The Hurricane Center gives this area only a 10 percent chance to develop into a tropical system over the next 48 hours.