Erika becomes fifth tropical storm of the season

Erika became the fifth tropical storm of the season late Monday night with winds of 45 mph, and today the storm has been moving briskly westward with little change in intensity.

At 2 p.m., the National Hurricane Center said the center of Ericka was located 640 miles east of the Leeward Islands, moving westward at 20 mph. A west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. 

On the forecast track, the center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night and early Thursday. Tropical storm watches were in effect for many of the islands.

The Hurricane Center said it is expecting only slow strengthening at best. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters were investigating Erika this afternoon, looking for more information on the storm’s intensity.

The current NHC track of the storm takes it into Puerto Rico and north of Hispaniola, still as a tropical storm, on Friday and into the Bahamas as a minimal hurricane Saturday night or Sunday morning.

If Erika manages to escape the wind shear and drier air that besieged Hurricane Danny in about the same area last week, it could threaten the Southeast U.S. next week.

Forecasters say that if the storm continues moving quickly, it could be deflected by a dip in the Jet Stream and curve north out into the open Atlantic. If it slows down significantly, it might miss the dip in the Jet Stream and head more toward the southeast coast.

According to Dr. Jeff Masters on his Weather Underground blog, “a trough of low pressure capable of turning Erika to the north will set up shop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, but it is uncertain at this time whether or not Erika will be strong enough to get picked up by this trough.”

“If Erika manages to fight off the dry air and wind shear besetting it and grow into a strong tropical storm by Thursday, it would likely take a more northerly course and be a long-range threat to the U.S. East Coast, Bermuda, or Canada early next week. If Erika stays weak, it will track more to the south, and take a path close to Hispaniola and into the Bahamas by this weekend.”