NOAA's winter forecast predicts a warmer
and drier season on the Outer Banks
at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued the U.S. Winter Outlook in
late October, reporting that La Niņa is expected to once again
influence winter conditions this year.
As a result, the Outer Banks has a hefty 40-50% chance of experiencing a drier and warmer winter than usual.
the temperature and precipitation outlooks [for this year’s forecast]
lean on typical La Niņa impacts, particularly those of the past 30
years, and bear some resemblance to the outlooks issued for last
winter,” reported Mike Halpert of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in
his annual blog. “…last year at this time, we were also anticipating
the emergence of La Niņa later in the fall.”
a typical La Niņa winter, it’s common to experience warmer winters in
the southern U.S., and wetter, cooler conditions in the northern U.S.
believe there is about a 55%-65% chance during the fall and winter that
La Niņa will fully form, but if it materializes, forecasters say it
should be weak and potentially short-lived.
the La Niņa factor in mind, the 2017 / 2018 temperature outlook
indicates above-average temperatures across the southern U.S.,
extending northward out West through the central Rockies, and all the
way up to Maine in the eastern part of the nation.
NOAA says two-thirds of the continental US will likely experience warmer-than-normal conditions.
winter precipitation outlook favors below-normal precipitation across
the entire southern U.S., with probabilities greatest (exceeding 50%)
along the eastern Gulf Coast to the coasts of northern Florida,
Georgia, and southern South Carolina.
contrast, above-average precipitation is more likely across much of the
northern parts of the country, in the northern Rockies, around the
Great Lakes, in Hawaii, and western Alaska.
Locally, the Outer Banks has one of the higher percentages of warmer and drier than normal winter.
a 40-50% chance that the temperature will be higher than usual, and a
40-50% chance that the winter will be much drier than usual as well.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues probabilistic seasonal
temperature and precipitation forecasts so that users can understand
risk and opportunities when making climate-sensitive decisions,
according to the report.
predictions are certainly not set in stone, the recent wave of almost
summer-like beach days certainly seems to suggest that this year’s warm
winter forecast is on track.